Statistical Information on Iran
Iran social indicators per EIU

Economic forecast: Social indicators
May 7, 1999 (c) 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited
Social indicators(a)
1997 2001
Life expectancy (years)
Male 68.5 70.0
Female 70.0 72.0

Literacy rate (% of population)
Male 88.0 90.0
Female 59.0 68.0

Urbanisation (% of population) 59.0 65.0
Health indicators
% access to basic care 80.0 89.0
 

Urbanisation (% of population) 59.0 65.0
Health indicators
% access to basic care 80.0 89.0
 

(a) Calendar years.

Sources: UN Population Fund, World Population 1997; EIU.
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Economic forecast: Wage & price inflation
May 7, 1999 (c) 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited

Wage & price inflation(a)

% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Consumer prices 19.4 30.0 25.0 20.0 25.0 20.0

(a) Calendar years.
 
 
 

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Economic forecast: External debt
May 7, 1999 (c) 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited

External debt(a)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Total external debt ($ bn) 11.5 11.0 10.5 11.0 12.3 13.2

% of GDP 19.2 14.9 11.8 10.3 10.0 8.6

Debt-service ratio, paid (%) 30.9 35.3 15.9 11.0 7.7 7.9
 
 

(a) Data are for fiscal years beginning March 20th.
 
 
 

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Demographic assumptions: Demographic profile
May 7, 1999 (c) 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited
 

Demographic profile

1995 2000 2005 2010

Population (m) 68.4 64.8 72.2 81.4

Males 34.8 33.0 36.7 41.4

Females 33.6 31.8 35.5 40.0

Age profile (% of total population)

0-14 44.4 43.1 40.0 37.3

15-64 51.8 52.8 56.0 58.8

65+ 3.8 4.1 4.0 3.9

Median age (years) 17.6 18.1 19.3 20.7

Young-age dependency ratio 0.86 0.82 0.71 0.63

Old-age dependency ratio 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.07

Working-age population (m) 35.4 34.2 40.4 47.8

Labour force (m) 17.8 19.4 24.7 30.1
 
 

Period averages 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10

Population growth (%) -1.1 2.2 2.4

Working-age population growth (%) -0.7 3.4 3.4

Labour force growth (%) 1.8 5.0 4.0

Crude birth rate (per 1,000) 34.0 31.3 29.2

Crude death rate (per 1,000) 6.0 5.4 5.0

Net migration rate (per 1,000) -5.8 0.0 0.0

Total fertility rate (per woman) 4.8 4.2 3.7

Infant mortality rate 39.0 35.0 30.0

(per 1,000 live births)

Life expectancy at birth

Males 68.5 69.7 70.9

Females 70.0 72.0 73.5

Average 69.2 70.8 72.2
 

Sources: UN population projections, medium variant; International
Labour

Office, labour force projections; national statistics.
 
 

Demographic assumptions: Growth rates will continue to fall
May 7, 1999 (c) 1999 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited

Reacting to the civilian losses sustained during the Iran-Iraq war and
to the injunctions of Ayatollah Khomeini, who encouraged Iranians to
have ever greater numbers of children, the current government took
office facing a net population growth rate approaching 2.6% per year (a
statistical discrepancy in official population statistics for 1995
distorts growth rates, which are unrealistically estimated to contract
between 1996 and 2000). In order to reduce this, the government will
continue its public education campaign, supported by the extensive
distribution of contraceptives and a network of volunteer family
planning nurses in both urban and rural areas, aimed at discouraging
Iranians from having large families. Iran still experiences a net
population loss through migration, particularly of trained
professionals and children of the middle class, but this is likely to
slow during an assumed second Khatemi term. Nonetheless, the total
population is projected to grow to 68.9m by the end of our forecast
period and to over 80m by 2010, placing pressure on the government to
develop education and employment opportunities for the 40-45% of the
population under 15 years.

While every effort has been taken to verify the accuracy of this
information, The Economist Intelligence Unit, Ltd. cannot accept any
responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on this
information.